Hurricane Simon reaches 155 mph aimed at Mexico's Pacific coast

Hurricane Simon strengthened into a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 155 miles per hour off Mexico's Pacific coast on Saturday, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said. The storm was about 65 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving slowly northward at 5 mph. A hurricane warning covers the coast from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, taking in Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.cbsnews.com

Simon sat just below the Category 5 threshold of 157 mph, the hurricane center said. A major hurricane, defined as Category 3 or stronger, carries winds of at least 111 mph. Forecasters expected Simon to approach Mexico's west-central coast on Sunday as a major hurricane, with the centre near or just inland of the coast later on Saturday or on Sunday.riotimesonline.com+1

What the storm's strength means

The hurricane could bring 10 to 20 inches of rain over parts of southwestern Mexico, with some areas in Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco receiving up to 30 inches. The National Hurricane Center warned in a bulletin that the rainfall would produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, and urged residents to take immediate action to prepare as tropical storm conditions arrived Saturday afternoon.

A dangerous storm surge was expected along the immediate coast near and to the east of where the centre makes landfall, with large and destructive waves accompanying it. Simon's minimum central pressure was 945 millibars at midnight local time on Saturday, the hurricane center said in an intermediate advisory. Hurricane-force winds reached only about 15 miles from the centre, while tropical-storm-force winds extended about 80 miles.

Jalisco state suspended classes on Monday in 22 coastal municipalities and began evacuating dozens of people from at-risk areas. It asked the tourism sector in Puerto Vallarta to ensure workers and visitors were accommodated in shelters or safe zones by Friday afternoon. Convenience stores, hotels and other businesses in Puerto Vallarta were boarding up their windows Saturday morning under overcast skies.

Where the warnings and evacuations stand

President Claudia Sheinbaum said the armed forces had started preventive operations and urged people in vulnerable areas to move to temporary shelters, El Informador reported. The government deployed the preventive phase of the army's disaster-relief plan, DN-III-E, and the navy's equivalent, Plan Marina. Laura Velazquez Alzua, who heads Mexico's federal civil protection agency, said command centres would be set up in Jalisco and Colima, Infobae reported.

Puerto Vallarta opened five temporary shelters, mostly in schools and university buildings, and about 500 people had been evacuated in Cabo Corriente. Airlines cancelled all of Saturday's commercial flights at Manzanillo's airport, and Jalisco asked visitors to reconsider weekend trips to Puerto Vallarta. Jalisco's civil protection unit said all non-essential activity on the state's coast would stop from 5 p.m. on Saturday.

The $175 million IBRD CAR Mexico 2024 (Pacific) parametric catastrophe bond is on watch, with model runs still suggesting a chance of a payout event. A pressure of 932mb or lower within the relevant parametric box could activate a 25% payout, while 915mb or lower would be required for 50%. Simon's central pressure was estimated at 932mb on Saturday night.

What happens next on Sunday

Forecasters could not yet say whether Simon would move inland over Colima and Jalisco or stay just offshore. The National Hurricane Center's forecast favoured landfall followed by rapid weakening over the mountains, with the storm dissipating by early next week, but if the centre stayed just off the coast, Simon would likely keep hurricane strength for longer.

Kalshi bettors gave Simon a 61% chance of reaching Category 5, up from 14% a day earlier. Simon's arrival comes after Polo, which hit Mexico last week as a Category 2 hurricane before reaching the southwestern United States and bringing heavy flooding. The hurricane center expected Simon to approach the west-central coast on Sunday as a major hurricane.