German spy chief warns of violent conflict with Russia

Germany's foreign intelligence chief Martin Jaeger warned lawmakers on 5 October 2026 that Germany risks being drawn into violent conflict with Russia. Jaeger, head of the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), delivered the warning at the annual public hearing of Germany's intelligence chiefs in parliament, describing the confrontation with Moscow as having taken on a new, more dangerous dimension as Russia escalates what Berlin calls a shadow war against European democracies.politico.eu+1

What the intelligence chief told parliament

Jaeger's warning matters because Germany is one of Europe's central security powers and a major supporter of Ukraine, so any serious escalation involving Berlin could transform a confrontation fought through Ukraine, sanctions, cyber operations and covert activity into a broader European security crisis. He said no other country currently poses such a direct, comprehensive and concrete threat to Germany, and that Germany has become a primary target of Russian actions in Europe.londonlovesbusiness.com

Jaeger told parliamentarians that Germany is in danger of being drawn into a violent conflict with Russia, citing Russia's attempted attack on a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane at Leipzig Airport in August as one example. He said Germany has become a major obstacle to Russia's hegemonic power projection in Europe and, as a result, a primary target of Russian actions. He also said the confrontation with Russia has taken on a new, more dangerous dimension.

The Leipzig incident sits at the centre of Berlin's public attribution of hostile activity. Germany's government said its assessment was based on police investigations, intelligence findings and evidence recovered from the scene at Leipzig Airport. Jaeger pointed to the attempted attack in Leipzig as an example of the risks confronting Germany, referring to a drone found by a Ukrainian aircraft in August. Interior minister Alexander Dobrindt said Germany is not at war but is a daily target of hybrid warfare.

Where the Leipzig example came from

Jaeger said Russia's invasion of Ukraine is entering its most dangerous phase yet as President Vladimir Putin faces growing domestic pressure to show military progress with the war entering its fifth winter. He said Russia is determined to bring Ukraine to its knees this coming winter and that Russian attacks must be expected of a severity and brutality not yet seen on this scale. He added that Putin has passed the point where he could simply call off the attack without jeopardising his domestic power base.

Legislation expected to receive Bundestag backing would expand the range of active measures available to German intelligence agencies when responding to foreign attacks. Under the proposed changes, BND employees could receive broader authority to counter hostile cyber operations, including accessing adversaries' computers and servers and deleting stolen information. The agencies could also be permitted to interfere with hostile supply chains, including by replacing components in consignments bound for states regarded as adversaries.

What Jaeger does not see yet

Jaeger said he currently sees no evidence for a large-scale Russian attack on a NATO member country, yet considers it entirely possible that Russia might carry out targeted, smaller-scale operations like the "little green men" who spearheaded the annexation of Crimea in 2014. He said Russia is forcing the confrontation and sees Germany as a main adversary because Germany refuses to accept its revisionist, expansionist policies and its war of aggression against Ukraine.

Not everyone in Germany frames the confrontation in the same terms. Stefan Thumann, a German defence entrepreneur whose company Donaustahl supplies combat drones to Ukraine, said some Russian operations amounted to an act of war controlled and coordinated by the Russian armed forces, and stated that Germany and Russia are at war. Thumann also said he is living under protection after authorities uncovered what he described as an alleged Russian plot to poison him.

The Kremlin has denied the possibility of confrontation with NATO. Russian President Vladimir Putin said: "We are not threatening anyone. We have no intention of attacking anyone - whether in 2029, 2030 or 2050 - but if we are subjected to aggression, we will have no choice but to respond." Russian state propagandist Vladimir Solovyov has argued that modern Germany should no longer be treated as a legitimate unified state and called for the restoration of East Germany.

Denmark's intelligence services also sounded an alarm over escalation of Russian hybrid threats against Europe in coming months, alongside Jaeger's warning. The concern in Berlin is that attacks below the threshold of open warfare could create a dangerous escalation cycle, particularly if infrastructure, transport networks or military-linked facilities become targets. Jaeger said Germany could increasingly find itself caught between Moscow's campaign of pressure and its obligations to support Ukraine and defend European security.

What follows depends on the Bundestag vote on the legislation expanding the BND's active measures authority and on Berlin's delivery of the drones and Iris-T missiles planned for this month. Jaeger's assessment that Russia is determined to bring Ukraine to its knees this coming winter sets the timeline for Germany's response, with the war entering its fifth winter and Putin under pressure to show military progress.